Oil Depletion and the Future of Slums

Steven Jensen (sjjensen@usc.edu)

Abstract:  The impact of oil depletion is usually considered from the perspective of the developed world.  This point of view obscures the impact of oil shortages on the poor, particularly those in the slums of the developing world.  Slums will be home to two billion people by 2030.  The low resilience of many slums will likely result in a series of cascading failures leading to complex and widespread catastrophes if they are unable to sustain the support structures made possible by cheap and abundant oil.  In this scenario, few options will be available: the depth of oil dependence will become evident with severe shortages, substitutions will likely prove to be inadequate, and changes in land use will make difficult a return to the subsistence lifestyle many slum-dwellers had known.  Leaders with foresight might be able to steer nations around this catastrophe by developing mitigation measures, maybe at the expense of some short-term gains.  The key is understanding oil dependencies and making appropriate structural changes, while getting the timing right.  Countries that act with some foresight on this issue could achieve the long-term stability needed to advance while much of the world struggles to adapt to depleted oil supplies.