Governance through Catastrophes

Steven Jensen (sjjensen@usc.edu)

University of Southern California

Catastrophes are a significant force in shaping history, though their impact is often obscured.  Structures are reformed, politics change, economies rise and fall, and population patterns are altered.  Our world is now in the midst of reorganization through forces of globalization, as evidenced by increasing interdependence in the economic, technological, political, cultural, and ecological realms.  Threatening this emerging and highly interdependent global system is the possibility for a new range of complex catastrophes.  Three elements define these catastrophes: impact is widespread and deep, normal coping mechanisms are overwhelmed, and the underlying causes of force some degree of restructuring to return to a more stable and sustainable state.  It is the process of restructuring that is the focus of this study. 

Catastrophic events are often the product of the interaction between physical, built and social environments. As such, catastrophes should focus our collective attention on underlying issues that need to be resolved.  These are problems largely of our own making; this study considers the unique demands of past and potential future catastrophes.  In particular, this study considers the impact on policy and governments, the appropriateness of current and emerging forms of governance for the structural change brought about by catastrophic events, and the role of local participative governance toward achieving a suitable outcome. 

The noble advice from ancient texts, the founding principles from various governmental forms, and emerging forms of governance are considered in light of "complex adaptive systems" and applied to the unique demands of recovery from catastrophes.  Complexity science describes how systems achieve common goals through interdependent units reallocating resources and actions in a constant mutual adjustment under changing conditions.  For catastrophes, this explains many aspects of the dynamics in a necessarily decentralized system.  Moreover, it brings into question the largely unchallenged assumption that catastrophes require an imposition of hierarchically based control to return the impacted communities to a stable state. 

The outcome of this study will be practical ways to optimize governance and communities for the challenges of catastrophes.  While emerging forms of global interdependence can be very robust by virtue of their adaptability, it can also rapidly unravel when critical components collapse.  It is possible that we are creating a world where forms of catastrophe are inevitable.  As such, the focus of this study is on how to deliberately respond and work through recovery when catastrophe occurs.